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Why San Antonio, FL's Median Home Price Keeps Contradicting Itself

Why San Antonio, FL's Median Home Price Keeps Contradicting Itself

Pull up three real estate sites in the same afternoon and search "San Antonio FL home prices." One tells you the median sale price is hovering near $650,000. Another puts it at $389,000. A third lands somewhere in between, around $406,000. All three claim to be current. None of them are wrong, exactly. They're just each catching a different slice of a market that isn't one market at all.

That's the thing nobody tells you about San Antonio, Florida, the small Pasco County town off State Road 52, not the much larger Texas city that shares its name. The incorporated city itself has a population estimated around 1,670 people as of 2026. A town that size doesn't generate enough monthly closings to produce a stable median. It produces a handful of sales, and depending on which handful happened to close in the window a given site is measuring, that "median" can swing by hundreds of thousands of dollars month to month. The number isn't broken. It's just describing a town where a $270,000 townhome and a $1.6 million golf estate can both legitimately claim the same zip code.

If you're comparing San Antonio to other Tampa-corridor suburbs, the median is the wrong tool. What you actually need to know is which San Antonio you're pricing against, because there are at least three distinct ones stacked inside that single zip code, and a fourth just broke ground on paper this summer.

The three markets hiding under one name

Mirada is the one most people picture first. It's the master-planned community built around a 15-acre man-made lagoon, one of the largest of its kind in the country, with a sandbar swim-up area, cabanas, kayaking, a floating obstacle course, and a splash park. Multiple builders are active here at once. Maronda Homes has townhomes starting in the $270s. D.R. Horton and DRB Homes (through its Isla Mirada section) sell in similar territory. Homes by WestBay builds larger single-family product on the upper end, with listings ranging from roughly $580,000 to $794,000 on homes between 2,535 and 4,846 square feet. There's also a 55-plus villa pocket inside Mirada called the Medley, and a Publix-anchored shopping center where you can already eat at Tasty Tokyo, The Hungry Greek, or Cafe 36 without leaving the neighborhood. A new K-8 school, Kirkland Ranch Academy of Innovation, sits nearby.

Lake Jovita Golf & Country Club is the opposite end of the spectrum, and it's worth knowing that Lake Jovita's mailing address is technically Dade City, even though it sits on the San Antonio side of the ridge and its listings routinely reference San Antonio Elementary and the Pasco Middle and High School tracks. It's a gated community of 871 homes built around two championship 18-hole courses, the South (opened in 1999, designed with input from Tom Lehman and Kurt Sandness) and the North, designed by Steve Sandness. Third-party sales data through April 2026 shows 48 closings over the trailing year averaging $661,641, with asking prices averaging $705,067. Listings in that window ranged from $354,900 for villas up to $1,598,900 for ridge estates. Homes here sit on the market for around 99 days on average, a slower, more negotiated pace than Mirada's newer product.

One detail that catches buyers off guard at Lake Jovita: club membership is priced and managed separately from the HOA, and the HOA doesn't publish its dues schedule publicly. The homeowners association covers the gate, streets, lighting, and common areas. Golf, tennis, and the fitness center are a separate line item you negotiate directly with the club. Anyone comparing a listing price here against a Mirada listing is comparing two different cost structures, not just two different neighborhoods.

The older in-town corridor near the historic downtown and Lake Jovita's smaller namesake lake, still called Clear Lake by longtime residents, is the least legible of the three. This is custom-built homes on acreage, older construction mixed with newer infill, and no clean comp set because no two lots look alike. San Antonio started as a Catholic colony founded in 1882, and this pocket still carries that older-town character. It's the hardest slice of the market to price by algorithm, which is exactly why an algorithm-driven median struggles with it.

Here's a rough sense of what separates the three, based on the same data window:

Pocket Typical product Recent price range Pace
Mirada New construction, townhomes to single-family ~$273K to ~$794K Fast, builder-paced
Lake Jovita Golf-course gated community, resale-heavy $354,900 to $1,598,900 (avg ~$662K) ~99 days on market
In-town / Clear Lake Custom homes, acreage Widely variable, no clean comp set Varies by lot

Three products, three price logics, one zip code. Average them together and you get a number that describes nothing anyone is actually buying.

The fourth market is arriving now

If that wasn't enough to scramble the data, a fourth pocket just got announced, though it hasn't sold a single home yet. In June 2026, Tampa-based developer Eisenhower Property Group closed on more than 3,500 acres in eastern Pasco County, just off State Road 52 west of I-75, in the San Antonio area. The community is called Verona, and it will bring 2,500 homes to roughly 1,500 of those acres, with the remainder preserved as open space, agricultural, or recreational land under a restrictive covenant with Pasco County. More than 850 of Verona's homes will be built under Del Webb's active-adult Explore brand, meaning a meaningful chunk of new inventory arriving in San Antonio over the next several years will be age-restricted 55-plus product, not family resale or golf-course estates.

Verona isn't landing in isolation either. Just east of the site, at State Road 52 and Bellamy Brothers Road, a community called Hillcrest recently started selling, with Perry Homes, Lennar, Taylor Morrison, and Dream Finder Homes all building there simultaneously.

Once Verona and Hillcrest start closing sales, expect the reported "San Antonio median" to move again, not because existing homes changed value, but because the mix of what's selling changed. A wave of new-construction Del Webb closings priced for an active-adult buyer will pull the average in one direction. A wave of family-sized Lennar and Taylor Morrison product next door will pull it in another. None of that tells you what your specific target house, in your specific pocket, is actually worth.

What to ask instead of "what's the median"

If you're comparing San Antonio to Wesley Chapel, Land O' Lakes, or Lutz, skip the headline number and ask these questions instead:

  1. Am I comparing new construction pricing (Mirada, Verona, Hillcrest) against resale pricing (Lake Jovita, the in-town lots), or apples to apples within one product type?
  2. Does the number I'm looking at include a golf or club membership cost that's billed separately from the HOA?
  3. Is the sample size behind this "median" large enough to mean anything, or is it a handful of closings in a town of 1,670 people?
  4. Which builders are actively selling in the pocket I'm considering, and what does their current incentive structure look like this month, since builder pricing moves faster than resale pricing?
  5. If I'm looking at an age-restricted section like the Medley at Mirada or Verona's Del Webb homes, am I comparing it against other 55-plus product, not general family inventory?

Answer those, and you have a real number to work with instead of a headline that contradicts itself by the time you refresh the page.

A few quick answers

Is Lake Jovita's HOA the same as its golf membership? No. The HOA covers the gate, streets, lighting, and common areas. Club membership, which includes golf, tennis, and the fitness center, is a separate cost managed by the club itself, and dues aren't published publicly on either side.

Is Lake Jovita in San Antonio or Dade City? Both, in a sense. The mailing address is Dade City, but the community sits on the San Antonio side of the ridge and typically zones to San Antonio Elementary and the Pasco Middle and High School track.

What's actually planned for the land between Mirada and Lake Jovita? Verona, a 2,500-home community announced in June 2026 on more than 3,500 acres off State Road 52, with over 850 homes built under Del Webb's active-adult Explore brand and the rest of the acreage preserved as open space under a county covenant.

Does new construction nearby affect resale values in Lake Jovita or the in-town lots? It changes the comparison set buyers are shopping against, which is exactly why pricing a resale home here takes more than pulling a portal's median. It takes knowing which pocket that resale house is actually competing with this month.

San Antonio's price data will keep looking contradictory as long as it stays this small and this fragmented, and honestly, that's unlikely to change soon with two more large communities now in the pipeline. If you're trying to figure out what your budget actually buys in this particular stretch of Pasco County, or what your home is worth against the right comp set instead of a townwide average, that's a conversation worth having with someone who tracks these pockets individually. When it's time to buy or sell, call Shell! Reach out to Shells Florida Realty and let's figure out which San Antonio you're actually shopping.

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